Babachir David Lawal, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), has predicted that former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar stands no chance of winning the 2027 presidential election, while rating a potential Peter Obi-Rabiu Kwankwaso ticket as having a higher chance of victory based on his personal assessment.
Lawal made the remarks in a video circulating on social media, where he rated the chances of major political contenders ahead of the 2027 presidential race.
According to him, an Obi-Kwankwaso alliance has a 70 per cent chance of victory, Bola Tinubu has a 50 per cent chance, while Atiku Abubakar has a zero per cent chance.
The former SGF, however, stressed that the assessment was based on his personal scale and not a scientific prediction of the election outcome.
“On my own scale, Peter Obi and Kwankwaso have a 70 per cent chance, Tinubu has 50 per cent, while Atiku has zero per cent,” Lawal said.
The comments come amid growing political realignments and discussions around possible opposition coalitions ahead of the 2027 general elections, with Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso among politicians being linked with potential alliances.
Lawal, a prominent northern politician, has recently been critical of Atiku Abubakar, accusing the former Vice-President of engaging in ethnic politics over developments surrounding the African Democratic Congress (ADC) governorship ticket in Adamawa State.
He argued that Nigeria’s political landscape had changed and suggested that voters were increasingly focusing on issues such as insecurity, economic hardship and governance rather than traditional political calculations.
The former SGF’s remarks have generated reactions among supporters of the various political camps, with some viewing them as an indication of shifting alliances within the opposition ahead of 2027.
While supporters of Obi and Kwankwaso welcomed the comments as evidence of growing acceptance of their possible partnership, critics questioned the basis of assigning percentage chances to candidates in an election that remains more than a year away.
As political parties begin preparations for the 2027 elections, Lawal’s comments have added to ongoing debates over opposition unity, regional support and the likely shape of Nigeria’s presidential contest.