By Mike Arnold
When I first started visiting Nigeria in 2010, it was stable, peaceful, booming, and full of hope.
Bola Tinubu wants history to remember him as the man who renewed Nigeria’s hope, when he’s actually the man who destroyed it.
History has numbers. And the numbers are brutal.
In 2022, Tinubu claimed ownership of the political project that put Muhammadu Buhari in power:
“If not for me that stood behind Buhari, he wouldn’t have become the President.”
Then in 2026, Tinubu erased whatever distance remained between Buhari’s government and his own:
“The truth is, I took over from myself. The late Buhari was me. He was my partner.”
Fine.
Then let’s examine the record of that eleven-year APC era.
THE NAIRA
At the end of 2015: about ₦197/$.
September 2026: about ₦1,329/$.
The naira now buys roughly 85% fewer dollars than it did at the beginning of APC rule.
PETROL
2015 official price: ₦87/litre. Even during the 2015 shortages, NBS found Nigerians actually paying an average ₦112/litre.
September 2026: as much as ₦1,395/litre at filling stations.
That is more than 12 times the actual June 2015 national average—and 16 times the old official pump price.
THE FAMILY FOOD BASKET
This may tell the story better than any inflation statistic.
An ICIR analysis of NBS data priced a modest basic-food basket at about ₦13,000 in January 2016.
By October 2025, the same basket cost almost ₦97,000.
Rice: ₦239/kg → ₦2,255
Beans: ₦237/kg → ₦1,761
Garri: ₦132/kg → ₦847
Bread: ₦209 → ₦1,584
Crate of eggs: ₦892 → ₦5,993
Beef: ₦977/kg → ₦6,851
The basket rose roughly 645%.
The minimum wage rose from ₦18,000 to ₦70,000.
In 2016, the minimum wage could buy that basket and leave about ₦5,000.
By October 2025, the minimum wage couldn’t even buy the basket. It was about ₦27,000 short.
And falling inflation doesn’t reverse those increases. It merely means already-high prices are rising more slowly. NBS currently reports headline inflation of 15.39% and food inflation of 19.57%.
THE NATIONAL CREDIT CARD
Nigeria’s total public debt:
2015: ₦12.6 trillion.
March 2026: approximately ₦159 trillion.
That is more than a twelve-fold increase in nominal naira debt. Exchange-rate depreciation accounts for an important part of that comparison, which is why the dollar-denominated debt figure should also accompany it in any longer treatment.
THEN THERE IS THE BLOOD.
Intersociety estimates that approximately 185,000 Nigerians were killed in jihadist violence from 2009 through October 2025:
125,000 Christians.
60,000 nonviolent Muslims.
Intersociety also estimates that the violence has displaced nearly 15 million people.
Those are Intersociety estimates—not official government statistics—and should be identified as such.
The killing has continued in 2026. Intersociety’s mid-year report alone recorded 2,550 Christians killed during the first six months of 2026, alongside thousands abducted.
So look at the ledger. A naira worth a fraction of what it was.
Petrol above ₦1,300.
Basic foods up several hundred percent.
A minimum wage that cannot purchase a modest monthly food basket.
Public debt above ₦150 trillion.
And an enormous human toll from violence and displacement.
There are explanations and external forces behind individual numbers: oil markets, COVID, exchange-rate reforms, subsidy removal, insecurity, demographics and global inflation all matter. But these numbers describe what Nigerians experienced during eleven years of APC government.
And Tinubu himself has rejected the idea that Buhari’s eight years were somebody else’s political project.
“I took over from myself.”
Those are not my words. They’re his.
So when history asks what eleven years of this political project delivered to ordinary Nigerians, don’t argue about slogans. Show them the receipt.
Yes, Nigeria’s hope must be renewed. The only way that is possible with a total regime change.
Only a fool would support the man who destroyed the nation, in hopes he will fix it.
Mike Arnold is s former US Mayor and founder Africa Arise International