By Paul Alaje
The projections we made earlier (27th February, 2026) were ₦1,000 per litre for PMS and $100 per barrel for crude oil before April, if the war persists. Both have already materialised faster than expected.
Today, PMS is between N1,075 and N1,210. Crude fluctuates between $90 and $100.
Economics is fundamentally about numbers, patterns, and consequences. The earlier we understand this, the better prepared we will be.
The global economy has entered a cycle of recurring geopolitical shocks, occurring roughly every two years, which trigger inflation, supply disruptions, and economic instability.
Consider the pattern:
2018: China–United States Trade War
This triggered supply chain disruptions and global inflationary pressures.
2020: COVID-19 Pandemic
A simultaneous shock to both demand and supply across the world economy.
2022: Russian-Ukrainian Conflict
Massive disruptions to energy, fertiliser, and food markets.
2024: Israel–Hamas War
Renewed geopolitical instability in the Middle East.
2026: The emerging crisis between the United States–Israel and Iran is now creating fresh global energy uncertainties.
If this pattern holds, another global economic shock around 2028 is almost certain.
The lesson:
Countries (especially African nations) must fix their economies and pursue greater economic independence:
1. Strengthen domestic production
2. Reduce import dependence and
3. Build energy security
Expand intra-regional trade
Nations that fail to prepare will continue to suffer the consequences of shocks they did not create.
The time to prepare for the next crisis is now. Do not wait for the 2028 crisis to start if any.
Paul Alaje, is the Chief economistat SPMP
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