From the bold claim that “We have met our revenue target” back in September by President BolaTinubu, Nigeria’s finance minister, Wale Edun on Tuesday confirmed a massive ₦30 trillion revenue shortfall in 2025.
Edun spoke in Abuja when he appeared before the house of representatives committees on finance and national planning during an interactive session on the 2026-2028 medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF) and fiscal strategy paper (FSP).
According to the minister, the federal government projected revenue of N40.8 trillion for 2025 to fund the year’s budget, but current performance suggests it will likely end at about N10.7 trillion.
Edun blamed the shortfall on weak oil and gas revenues, particularly the petroleum profit tax (PPT) and company income tax (CIT), as well as poor performance across other revenue lines.
“The current trajectory indicates that federal revenues for the full year will likely end at around N10.7 trillion, compared to the N40.8 trillion projection,” Edun said.
The minister said despite the shortfall, the government met key obligations through “prudent treasury management”.
According to him, salaries, statutory transfers, and domestic and foreign debt servicing were paid through “creative handling” of resources.
He said expenditure plans should be flexible to oil revenues, warning against committing the government to obligations based on fickle projections.
“We must be ambitious, but given the experience of the past two years, spending linked to these revenues must depend on the funds actually coming in,” Edun said.
On his part, Atiku Bagudu, minister of budget and national planning, said the MTEF and FSP were put together through extensive consultations with government agencies and the private sector.
He said for the 2026 budget, the government is projecting oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day, but will adopt a more cautious production assumption of 1.84 million barrels per day for revenue calculations.
James Faleke, chairman of the committee on finance, called for critical analysis to prevent imprudent economic decisions.
President Tinubu: Nigeria hit revenue target for 2025
Meanwhile, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu had on Tuesday September 2 in Abuja said the revenue target for 2025 was achieved in August, following economic reforms, he claimed focused on stimulating the non-oil sector.
According to Tinubu, the bulk of the revenue came from the non-oil sector.
The President assured Nigerians that the Renewed Hope Agenda is firmly anchored on building critical infrastructure, improving health facilities, ensuring food sovereignty, and providing security.
He spoke at a meeting at the Presidential Villa with the founding members of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change and The Buhari Organisation, led by the former Governor of Nasarawa State, Umaru Tanko Al-Makura.
President Tinubu said that the economy was heading in the right direction.
“The economy is now stabilised. Nobody is trading pieces of paper for foreign exchange (forex) anymore. The economy is now predictable. You do not need to know the CBN Governor, Yemi Cardoso, to obtain foreign exchange or import goods.
“What we need now is building the ship and the vessels for the export of our goods and creating more jobs for our people,” the President noted then.
He said the federal government will establish agricultural mechanisation centres in all regions of the country to build capacity, expand cultivation and harvest, and guarantee food sovereignty.
“We are going to have trainees. That programme is our path to food sovereignty. “
Reflecting on his longstanding relationship with the CPC, President Tinubu described the political journey and merger as “a sweet memory,” and expressed gratitude to the group for their support:
“When I see people like you, I am determined to work harder.”
President Tinubu assured the delegation that the legacies of former President Muhammadu Buhari would be sustained and immortalised with a Buhari House, adding that more members of the old CPC would be given opportunities to participate in the government.
“Thank you for your patience until now. But first of all, we must cure the economy and bring hope to the people, which is what we stand for. Thank you for believing in me,” he said
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