Special Report: By our reporters
In less than 24 hours Nigeria, Africa’s most populous and arguably the most important country will head to the poll to determine who will be its President for the next four years. The contest is between two Hausa-Fulani men in their 70’s, incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressive Congress(APC) and Atiku Abubakar, of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). While Buhari has as its running mate, Yemi Osinbajo, a professor of law from the Southwest, Atiku has chosen Peter Obi, a businessman and former governor of Anambra State, Southeast Nigeria.
The election promises to be keenly contested as our team of reporters from across the country try to predict how the states may vote in the Presidential election.
Enjoy!
NORTH EAST ZONE
BAUCHI STATE
Traditionally Bauchi is a Buhari territory. In 2015 presidential election, Buhari got 931,598 against 86,085 votes for former President Goodluck Jonathan. Some realignments among the dynamics that brought incumbent Governor Mohammed Abubakar to power has occurred, this may not necessarily affect the fortune of the President Buhari in the state.
Eventhough the ruling APC has lost some heavyweight party members to the opposition PDP, like, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara who commands the strong following among Christians and minorities in the state, a former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Senator Bala Mohammed, and a former Majority Leader in the House of Representatives, Abdul Ningi, the Buhari brand still remain strong in Bauchi state.
Also, the presence of ex-Governor’s Isa Yuguda, Adamu Mu’azu, the immediate past Deputy National Chairman (North) of PDP, Sen. Garba Babayo Gamawa and a Board of Trustees member, Alhaji Kaulaha Aliyu in the ruling APC has given the President’s campaign the much needed boost.
Verdict: Bauchi is a safe state for Buhari but other races will have to be watched closely.
BORNO STATE
Borno is another Buhari Land. The President is massively loved in the state where he served as military governor twice. Despite the latest attacks by insurgents to undermine the security architecture of the state, the people of the state have undiluted loyalty for the President.
Bornu was the epicentre of the Boko Haram and prior to 2015, the insurgents were in control of most parts of the state. The President’s commitment to the war against the insurgents has strengthened their political bond with him.
Also, the fact that Governor Kashim Shettima and his godfather, Senator Ali Modu Sheriff are solidly working for the reelection of the President, according to poll watchers in the state, remains the ultimate game-changer.
Also to the advantage of the President and the ruling APC is the fact that the opposition PDP is engulfed an unending crisis. The party currently has two factions led by Alhaji Usman Baderi and Alhaji Zanna Gadama respectively. It was the irreconcilable differences between the warring factions that ultimately lead to the defection of the highly-respected ex-Governor of old Borno State, Alhaji Mohammed Goni from PDP to APC.
Verdict: Expect Buhari to win comfortably
YOBE STATE
Yobe State traditionally voted against PDP since 1999. It has always voted against PDP despite its political transformation from All Peoples Party (APP) to All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and APC. The Kanuri-Fulani combo has made the state impregnable for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
The fractious relationship between Ambassador Umar Iliya Damagum, The PDP gubernatorial candidate and ex-Minister of Police Affairs, Adamu Maina Waziri has not helped to forge the cohesion the party needs to confront the ruling APC in the state.
Verdict: This is another safe state for Buhari
TARABA STATE
Taraba has never been a good hunting ground for Buhari politically. Even in 2015 when he had the wind in his sail, he still didn’t win the state. The APC has also been unable to put its act together in the state.
The defection of ex-Minister of Women Affairs, Aishatu Jummai Alhassan, its governorship candidate in the last election to United Democratic Party (UDP) will be felt by the party.
Also, the fact that Taraba was one the worst hit states in the farmers-herders crisis the state will remain elusive for Buhari, coupled with the popularity of governor Ishaku Darius and the Danjuma factor means that Tariba remains a safe state for Atiku.
Verdict: Atiku
GOMBE STATE
Gombe is going to be a tough battle between the two leading parties, APC and PDP. Forces loyal to Outgoing Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo and his erstwhile godfather, ex-Minister Danjuma Goje, are poised for another epic battle.
Expect ethic composition to play a vital part in determining the outcome of the presidential election. The tribes in the state are Fulani (Northern part); Tangale (Southern part); Hausa, Tera, Waja, Bolewa, and Kanuri. The two leading candidates President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP are of Kanuri and Fulani descent.
Verdict: Too close to call
ADAMAWA STATE
Ordinary, being the son of the state, Adamawa should be a safe bet for Atiku. But the state which had always aligned with the PDP since 1999 the 2015 elections is very much in play in this election.
Buhari has a lot going for him in the state. He married from the state and some high profile players in his cabinet are also from there. The performance of Governor Jibrilla Umaru Bindow will make things a lot easier for the President and the APC.
Also of note is that Atiku failed to install a governorship candidate in 2015 under the banner of APC because Governor Bindow defeated his preferred candidate at the primaries twice.
It may be difficult for Atiku to lay down the marker in his home state.
Verdict: Too close to call
NORTH CENTRAL ZONE
NIGER STATE
Politically speaking, Niger state has been good for Buhari. His biggest asset in the state that boasts of two living heads of state is goodwill with the people. The president’s following in the state cannot be matched by his PDP challenger, Atiku Abubakar.
A former PDP commissioner recently told a national newspaper, “There is no doubt that Buhari will win Niger State. This has been his political terrain and voters in the state have not changed in following him.”
Verdict: Buhari
BENUE STATE
Benue is not a traditional Buhari state but it broke for him in the 2015 presidential election for a number of reasons.
But between then and now a lot of water, as they say, has passed under the bridge. The farmers-herders clashes last year is expected to play a crucial role in determining voter behaviour in the state.
The age-long Tiv-Fulani animosity is as volatile as it can be and coupled with the fact that the PDP in the state is more united and stronger after the closing of ranks between Ortom and ex-Governor Gabriel Suswam means that PDP has an edge in the state.
But the fact that ex-Governor George Akume, whose political large-heartedness is legendary is leading the APC assault and the likelihood of chief Audu Ogbe mobilising the votes of the Idoma’s leaves APC with a fighting chance in the state.
Verdict: Atiku
PLATEAU STATE
Plateau State state shares similar political characteristics and voting Behaviour with Benue State. Traditionally, they do not align with the political elements Buhari represents in the North.
Religion will also play a key role in the election. Being a predominantly Christian dominated state, Buhari’s candidacy is seen from the prism of Hausa-Fulani /Muslim sentiments.
But the leadership skills of Governor Simon Lalong which has restored peace to the state may be crucial for the fortunes of the ruling APC.
Also, the choice of a 75-year old discredited Lt Gen Jerry Useni, a close associate of the late dictator, Sanni Abacha has not inspired the rank and file in the PDP.
Verdict: Too close to call but maybe leaning PDP
KWARA STATE
Kwara is a state to watch in this election for many reasons. The people are genuinely not happy with the Saraki family dominance and far more discontent with the performance of the 16 years of PDP domination of the state politics. The slogan ‘Enough is Enough’ has caught up in the state.
There is also the belief among political watchers that ‘Abuja’ is poised to teach Saraki some political lessons and used the last house of reps by-election in the state as a test run of what is to come.
Buhari has always secured more than 25 per cent of the votes in Kwara State and won the state in the 2015 presidential election.
For the first time in 15 years, Senate president Bukola Saraki and the Saraki political dynasty maybe facing a major political battle for the soul of Kwara.
Verdict: A tight race but Atiku may prevail
KOGI STATE
Kogi created out Benue politically tends to align with the northern elements that President Buhari represents. Buhari won the state in the 2015 presidential election. But incumbent governor Yahaya Bello is not very popular in the state. Out of the three senatorial districts, Bello is still very strong in Kogi Central among his kinsmen. He remains unpopular in Kogi East and Kogi West.
The hope of many APC supporters is that this will not translate to negative votes for the President.
Verdict: Alabingo.com categorises Kogi as too close to call but maybe leaning Buhari.
NASARAWA STATE
Buhari narrowly lost the state in 2015 but Governor Umar Tanko Al-Makura’s matured leadership and decision allow power to shift from Nasarawa South District to Nasarawa North District for fairness and equity has brought the needed cohesion to the APC in the state.
Ex-Governor Abdullahi Adamu and Governor Al-Makura are working hard to ensure that the state falls into the Buhari column in the 2019 presidential election.
Nasarawa created from Plateau state are more likely to bed politically with the northern political groups rooting for Buhari.
Verdict: Buhari
NORTH WEST ZONE
KANO STATE
Despite the huge crowd that turned out for the Atiku Campaign rally last Sunday in Kano, the state in the eyes of many political watchers remains a safe bait for Buhari.
According to sources familiar with Kano politics, the PDP has not recovered from the setback from the manner it conducted the governorship primaries that led to the emergence of Alhaji Abba Kabiru Yusuf, who is a son-in-law to Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso.
It is on record that Buhari has never lost in Kano State and the ruling APC has a robust edge over PDP in the state given the Buhari factor and the incumbency influence of Governor Abdullahi Ganduje who commands a large following among the masses and Islamic clerics in Kano.
Verdict: Buhari
ZAMFARA STATE
The fate of APC candidates in Zamfara State is up in the air as the party is engulfed in internal crisis between two warring factions.
The party’s electoral fortune lies with the court and they may have been given a lifeline by the court of appeal ruling that party primaries took place in the state.
While awaiting the party awaits the decision of INEC following the court of appeal ruling, Buhari’s fortune in the poll may not be mortally damaged by the crisis in the party.
Since 1999, Zamfara has always voted against the PDP. It is safe to say that Zamfara is Buhari state.
Verdict: Buhari
KADUNA STATE
Kaduna State has always been a complex state with fluid political permutations. This has not been helped by the events of the last three and half years.
The issues that may likely determine the outcome of the elections are, security challenge, the prolonged Hausa-Fulani/ Southern Kaduna uneasy relationship, religious facto, the rising Shiites clan and its attendant grave security implications, and distrust among political elites.
Controversial Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai will be both an asset and a liability for the President’s electoral fortune in the state.
Don’t expect the APC to get substantial votes in Kaduna South District, but the party will likely prevail in Kaduna North and Kaduna Central which are largely populated by Muslims.
Buhari who is originally for Kaduna State will likely retain the state he won in 2011 and 2015.
Verdict: Buhari
KATSINA STATE
Katsina the home state of the President is a Buhari country and will remain so in this election circle. The party boasts of majority in the House of Assembly, it also controls all available seats in the National Assembly. Of recent, the APC won by-elections conducted in the state.
Verdict: Buhari
KEBBI STATE
Kebbi has always voted Buhari and are poised to do so in the forthcoming presidential election.
Governor Abubakar Atiku Bagudu’s performance in office in the last three and a half years has made APC the party to beat in the state. His focus on agriculture which in line with Buhari’s vision of diversifying Nigeria’s economy has led to massive employment and rice boom.
Atiku has not also helped his case in the state with his recent attack of the late Emir of Gwandu over the 53 suit cases ferried into the country in 1984.
Verdict: Buhari
SOKOTO STATE
The proxy battle in Sokoto State is between Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal and ex-Governor Aliyu Wammako his former godfather.
It is on record that Tambuwal rode to power on the back of Wamako’s solid political structure.
Although Tambuwal enjoys the support of some forces in the Caliphate and can boost of the power of incumbency, they are, however, not expected to affect the political fortunes of President Buhari and the APC in the state.
Verdict: Buhari
JIGAWA STATE
Like Kebbi state, the agricultural revolution of the Buhari regime, keyed into by Governor Abubakar Badaru has lead to rice production revolution which has empowered many citizens of the state.
This has, however, alienated him from the elites and former governor Sule Lamido who is leading the opposition PDP charge in the state.
Lamido who has a grudge with the Buhari government for putting him and his sons on trial, is staking all his resources to stop APC and Buhari from winning the state.
His best may, however not be good enough to stop Buhari from winning the state.
Verdict: Buhari
FEDERAL CAPITAL TERRITORY( FCT)
The FCT has always been a good political haunting ground for Buhari. But the recent clashes between the ruling APC and the Opposition PDP in the seat of power is a pointer to how close the election may be.
The FCT maybe too close to call in this election circle.
Verdict: Too close to call but maybe leaning Buhari
SOUTHWEST ZONE
LAGOS
Lagos, the commercial nerve centre of Nigeria has always been an APC State.
Ordinarily, given the poor state of the opposition PDP in the state and the lack of robust campaign by its governorship candidate, Jimmy Agbaje, the ruling APC ought to have the state wrapped up by now.
That does not, however, seem to be the case, basically because Buhari remains unpopular in Southern Nigeria especially amongst peoples of the South-South and South-East which make a large chunk of the Lagos population.
However, working in APC’s favour will be the political structure of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, which many believe was not fully deployed in 2015 and the recent restructuring carried out within the party in Lagos.
Also, the APC ticket will benefit from the candidature of Vice President Yemi Osibajo and the prospect of a Yoruba presidency in 2023.
Eventhough, pundits expect a keen race given the result of the 2015 election, expect Lagos to fall into the Buhari column.
VERDICT: A tight race but Buhari to prevail.
OGUN
Many may expect Atiku to prevail in Ogun given the show of shame that was the APC primaries earlier in the week. But it is equally noteworthy that Atiku did not even bother visiting Ogun state given the poor state of affairs within the party in the state.
The two political parties appear to be unable to put their houses in order.
But all the same, the ruling APC appears to be in a better shape. The state governor Ibikunle Amosus despite his problems with the leadership of the party is true Buharists and is committed to delivering the state for him in the presidential election.
The Vice- President Yemi Odinbajo is also from the state and married from the revered Awolowo family.
In 2015, APC won the presidential poll with a slim margin. But pundits believe the party will do better in this year’s election given the state of affairs within the opposition PDP.
VERDICT: Buhari
OYO
Like most Yoruba states, Oyo will likely vote for the presidential candidate of the ruling APC, Muhammadu Buhari.
The fact that their son Vice President Yemi Osinbajois is on the ticket and the prospect of a Yoruba Presidency in 2023 is a win-win for them. Minister of works, power and housing, Raji Fashola and the Vice president said this much in the course of the campaign.
Also, the opposition PDP is in limbo in the state as the majority of those chieftains who made the party thick in the state have jumped ship or gone into political oblivion.
Verdict: Buhari
ONDO
Buhari won Ondo state in 2015 and is expected to do so again in 2019. The South West effect will also come to play here.
The state is firmly in the political grip of the ruling party under Governor Rotimi Akeredolu and the PDP has little or no presence. The PDP has been in decline in the state following its defeat in the 2012 governorship election.
On the contrary, eventhough Governor Akeredolu and Senator Ajayi Boroffice of the APC disagrees politically, they are both committed to the reelection of Buhari.
VERDICT: Buhari
OSUN
The PDP has not yet recovered from the loss of the Osun governorship seat having come very close to clinching the ticket.
Senator Ademola Adeleke, the man who came close to winning the governorship ticket is facing trial at an Abuja high court for exam malpractice related offence and has since kept a low profile.
The ruling APC, on the other hand, appears to be repositioning itself for new electoral challenges ahead. Expect the Yoruba factor and the prospect of the Yoruba presidency in 2023 to play a role in determining the outcome of the election.
VERDICT: Buhari
EKITI
With former governor Ayodele Fayose at the helm in 2015, PDP won the presidential election in Ekiti State, the only they prevailed in the entire south-west.
Today, we have a different scenario. The ruling APC is in control of the state with Kayode a former Buhari minister as governor.
Atiku and the PDP’s problem is worsened by the fact that the party is factionalised between former governor Fayose and Senate Minority Leader, Senator Abiodun Olujimi respectively with both groups are at war over who should lead the party and Atiku’s campaign.
Meanwhile, Governor Fayemi is quietly building the structure to deliver the state for his former boss.
The Ekiti election will be will be keenly contested as ex-Governor Fayose and Governor Fayemi renew their fight for political supremacy.
Expect Fayemi to prevail.
VERDICT: Buhari
SOUTHEAST ZONE
ANAMBRA
Anambra State is the home state of Peter Obi, the running mate to Atiku Abubakar, the opposition PDP presidential candidate. The state is currently ruled by governor Willy Obiano of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).
Expect Atiku to prevail here because Obi, a former governor of the state is well loved and Buhari is highly disliked in the South East.
But will surely do better in the state than he did in 2015 given the support of the governor who is a political enemy of Peter Obi.
Verdict: Atiku
ENUGU
The Peoples Democratic Party’s candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar will win the presidential election in Enugu.
Expect Buhari to do better than he did in 2015
Verdict: Atiku
ABIA
Abia State has voted for Peoples Democratic Party since 1999.
The people may not be happy with the performances of the PDP lead governments in the last 20 years, expect them to vote for Atiku in their numbers.
Buhar will garner more votes than he did in 2015.
Verdict: Atiku
IMO
Imo is the only Southeast state currently in the hands of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC. Buhar got about 30% of the votes in the 2015 election but the party is currently engulfed in a crisis following a disagreement over the conducts of its primaries between governor Okorocha and the party leadership.
Eventhough, Okorocha is still in the APC running for a Senatorial seat but his son-in-law and governorship candidate is running on the platform of another party with his blessing.
Verdict: Atiku with Buhari scoring above 25% of votes cast
EBONYI
Ebonyi State like most south east states has remained a PDP state since 1999.
This will not likely change in this election circle despite the behind the scene support of President Buhari by governor Umahi and the recent endorsement of the President by Ebonyi state council of traditional rulers.
Verdict: Atiku but expect Buhari to perform significantly better than he did in 2019
SOUTH-SOUTH ZONE
BAYELSA
Since 1999, Bayelsa has also remained a Peoples Democratic Party state. It is also the home state of former president Goodluck Jonathan.
Despite the endorsement of Buhari by Niger Delta Militants, expect Atiku to win the state comfortably.
Verdict: Atiku
RIVERS
Rivers has never voted any other party but PDP since the advent of civilian rule in 1999. Its only romance with another political party was the brief period before the 2015 election when the then-governor Rotimi Amechi defected to the APC.
Going into the 2019 presidential election, APC in the oil-rich Rivers State is in political wilderness as it has been barred by the supreme court from fielding candidates in the 2019 election circle in the state following its inability to resolve the crisis the arose from its primaries between two warring factions of the party.
PDP will surely maintain its strong hold on the state.
Verdict: Atiku
DELTA
Like most states in the South South and South East, Delta has also remained a PDP state since 1999. The solid performance of governor Ifeanyi Okowa, in the last three and half years, means there is no incentive for the people to change their voting habit.
However, because of the presence of people like the for governor of the state, Emmanuel Uduaghan, Buhari will likely perform better than he did in 2015.
Verdict: Atiku
EDO
Edo remains the only South South state that has bucked the trend in voting against the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. The state is presently controlled by the ruling All Progressive Congress, APC and also the state of Adams Oshiomhole, the chairman of the ruling party.
President Buhari was competitive in the state in 2015 as he finished a close second to former president Goodluck Jonathan an indigene of the zone.
Party leaders are under instruction and have been mobilised to deliver their zones for the ruling party in the presidential election.
If there is any state that can deliver Buhari in the South-South, Edo is the state!
Buhari will easily garner the majority of votes in the state given the popularity of his party, the ruling All Progressives Congress across the state and the fact that they have the structure and resources to do so.
It is a chance, the outspoken Adam Oshiomhole, the former labour leader may not likely miss.
VERDICT: Too close to call but leaning Buhari
AKWA IBOM
Akwa Ibom State is another state to watch closely in the presidential and other elections in 2019. The state which has voted PDP since 1999 was a safe bait for the main opposition party until the ‘uncommon defection’ last year by Senator Godswill Akpabio.
Expect APC to out perform the PDP in Akwa Ibom Northwest Senatorial District where former governor Godswill Akpabio hails from.
Akwa-Ibom South Senatorial District will be a fight between Governor Udom Emmanuel and Nsima Ekere, the APC candidate two strong indigenes of the zone.
The Northeastern Senatorial District is another battleground zone where both APC and PDP are said to be equally matched.
It is important to note that the main age-long gladiators in Akwa Ibom politics, former governors Victor Attah and Akpabio, Umanah Umanah, Ekere ( a former Deputy Governor), John Akpan Udoedehe, and many others have buried the hatchet and are all in APC.
For the first time in so many years, Akwa Ibom appears to be in play.
VERDICT: Too close to call but maybe leaning Atiku.
CROSS RIVER
Cross River will remain a PDP state. APC remains too factionalised to be a threat to the PDP in the state.
Also, the travails of Justice Walter Onnoghen, the suspended chief justice of Nigeria, who is from the state, in the hands of President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration has not gone down well in the state.
VERDICT: Atiku
*Buhari likely to be reelected president for the next four years.
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